Can China Enter Iraq?

The idea may seem ludicrous at first glance, but if one looks closely this may not be as outlandish as it sounds. The complete withdrawal of American forces from Iraq at the end of 2011 in time to be with their families for Christmas was widely reported in the media. There were celebrations across America as men and women in uniform joined their families and friends and an official closure to the Iraq war was announced by President Barack Obama.

There has been intermittent violence in Iraq since the American withdrawal. The religious lines are firmly drawn and there is an air of suspicion. Saddam Hussein may have gone but if one were to believe the Sunni minority Nouri al-Maliki is the new Saddam for Iraqis. The tug of war between the majority Shiite and minority Sunnites is back and this time it seems to be a free for all. Americans have not left behind a stable Iraq as many would have expected. It is a dysfunctional state surrounded by equally hostile neighbors who have their own axe to grind. The Shiite government of al-Maliki has support from Iran. The other Sunnite nations like Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey despise the Shiite influence in Iraq because they feel Tehran is calling the shots. It’s an untenable situation which can only lead to more violence and discord in the coming months. The truth of the matter is that with the exit of the American forces there is a void in the nation that is Iraq. And any student of Physics will vouch for the fact that nothing happens in a vacuum. If the container is too weak it will get mangled or else there has to be something to replace the air that has been taken out of the container.

Iraq is in an unenviable situation.  It’s a fragile state that has ethnic contradictions so deep that some strong force is needed to keep the nation of Iraq in one piece. Earlier there was Saddam Hussein who controlled the state with an iron fist. He killed a few thousand of his own countrymen to secure himself as the undisputed despot that he was. But that was much less than what the NATO forces killed in the decade that they were in Iraq not to mention the deaths of common Iraqis due to the debilitating sanctions by the world community again led by the West.

It is not only the Shiite and the Sunnite who are at loggerheads. The Kurds in the northern part of Iraq have tasted some stability with an autonomous council to look after the affairs of the region. This relative peace has resulted in an economic boom in the region around Irbil. Sad to say but the autonomy to the Kurds is bound to get eroded if not totally rejected in the months to come. Kurds will be again at the receiving end – the only difference being that this time it will be the Shiite led al-Maliki government that will be their bête noir. The relative peace during the West’s presence will soon be a thing of the past.

I am not giving a doomsday scenario for Iraq. I am only outlining the reality on the ground. For has not the Sunnite Vice President of Iraq fled to northern parts to save himself from the ire of Nouri al-Maliki? President Jalal Talabani helped him escape.

There is a void in Iraq post American withdrawal and that will need to be filled. Rick Perry, a Republican hopeful has said that were he to get to the White House he would order troops back into Iraq. Going by current trends I am not sure Rick Perry will make it as the President of the United States but suffice to say that there are some conservatives who understand that complete withdrawal may not have been the best idea in American interests.

Iraq becomes hugely important for the simple reason that this is one country rich in oil – very rich in oil. Known oil deposits are second largest in the world after Saudi Arabia. Oil fields are mainly in the Kurdish north and the Shiite South-East of the country. Oil fields around Irbil are so rich in oil that puddles of the dark liquid swim on the surface. And this is a country abandoned by the US.

Map of Asia

One of the main worries for China is to secure its energy needs. The recent sanctions against Iran has Beijing fuming as Iran is one of their main suppliers of crude. Instability in Iraq means that the situation is fluid in this strategically important nation. China did win some oil concessions by the Iraqi authorities but that may not whet the humongous appetite of this nation striding ahead as a possible world power. Securing energy needs will be a huge strategic advantage for China.

China has the largest military in the world. Its army is almost 1.2 million strong. China is building a blue water navy and has just tested an aircraft carrier. It has nuclear powered submarines and intercontinental ballistic missile systems. China has the military might and with a closed totalitarian system – this is a nation which can live with body bags arriving from wars in lands yonder. The Dragon can breathe fire if it wants to.

It is true that China cannot match the West with its limited naval fleet (fast expanding). But China has the army and the air force to challenge the mightiest. Luckily for them if they wanted to, they have a clear road right up till the borders of Iraq on the Iranian side. Were Beijing to think of entering Iraq it won’t take the sea route – it will go via land. The Karakoram highway that they have been building for the past few years will now come handy. They already have a military presence in Northern Areas of Pakistan. They can push troops right across Pakistan and through Iran into Iraq. Both Pakistan and Iran are allies of Beijing. Entering Iraq with their army and air force should not be too difficult. The present Iraqi defense forces will be no match to the Chinese military might. I can understand Turkey and Saudi Arabia resisting any such military maneuvers but they will not enter Iraq to stabilize the situation.

Any Chinese military movement will be detected in no time by the West. They will quote the Scriptures and how it is against international law. But any such incursion into Iraq will be as valid or invalid as was the Western invasion in the early 2003. My hunch is that with increasing frostiness between Moscow and DC the Russians will veto any Security Council resolution against Chinese incursion. Not that the Russians will celebrate Chinese military forays into the Middle East but they would play along to extract some strategic benefits from the West at a later date.

My hunch is that if the Chinese were to contemplate any such strategic move in the Middle East they will do it after the Iran question is settled. Israel and China have had some useful diplomatic exchanges recently. Beijing understands Tel Aviv’s anxiety vis-à-vis the Iranian nuclear program. Beijing would also hate to see proliferation in the sensitive Middle East. They would go along with Israel in neutralizing the Iranian nuclear program with a caveat that the regime must not be disturbed and that if they undertake any military operation in the Middle East Tel Aviv shall not take any military posture.  Israel will by all means go along with Beijing because for them any proliferation will be an existential threat. Promise of a few oil concessions by the Chinese will be the sweetener that will secure Israel’s tacit approval of Beijing’s plans.

I would also reckon that any Chinese military maneuvers will take place only after the US presidential elections. If Barack Obama were to get a second term the Chinese would fancy their chances of a military foray into the Middle East. For Beijing a foothold in the Middle East will have far reaching strategic ramifications. A long term Chinese presence in the region will mean that the leverage of the West in this strategic region will be neutralized. It will have a more proactive role in the Middle Eastern affairs and will be taken seriously by the world at large. A Chinese military operation in the Middle East will mean that China as a world power would then have arrived.

It is true that Saudi Arabia with an impressive fleet of American war planes will be a threat, as will Turkey. The question that needs to be asked is whether the Chinese air force has the confidence with their J17 and other mish-mashed replicas of Russian and American design planes to take the modern air force of Turkey and Saudi Arabia and Oman? I know that the biggest challenge could be from the American Fifth Fleet stationed in Bahrain. Fifth Fleet may decide not to take on the Chinese military head on. Numerically the Chinese army is indeed the most impressive war machinery on the face of the Earth. Will they have the confidence to fight it out and secure Iraq for strategic purposes?

If the Syrian regime does not fall in the coming months and if the Iran issue is taken care of before the American presidential polls, as many pundits believe it would, then it is very likely that by the end of this year the Chinese might begin moving their huge military westwards down the Karakoram through Pakistan into Iran and further up to the eastern Iraqi town of Basra. Unlike the American military expedition in Afghanistan, China should have no logistical problems either from Pakistan or Iran as their interests will not be at variance with those of Beijing. Iran may in fact welcome Chinese presence to counter the writ of the pro-West Sunnite nations.

With a beleaguered Iran and an impoverished Pakistan throwing their weight behind Beijing the Chinese could fancy their chances and take the risk. In today’s nuclear world no power would want a direct confrontation. With Barack Obama at the helm again Beijing will be sure Americans will do nothing silly. That might give them the confidence of taking such a risk. If you look at it closely, perhaps it may be a risk worth taking.

Related articles

• Editorial: Maliki .. Shiite version of Saddam Hussein (thecurrencynewshound.com)
• Ex-Iraq leader says US left job undone (worldnews.msnbc.msn.com)

Independent Balochistan – key to Af-Pak problem?

The killing of 24 Pakistan soldiers by NATO in November of 2011 has a seething Pakistan refusing to cooperate with their American ‘allies’. This means that Pakistan will stop all supply convoys moving from Karachi to Khyber and beyond. Any army is hugely dependent on supplies and that includes food and ammunition to everything else including the precious mail from their loved ones. Pakistan chose to skip the Bonn convention on Afghanistan which was attended by more than a hundred countries. The US has not taken this lightly. They have made it clear that Pakistan needs to cooperate though it must be said that Washington has ‘regretted’ the incident more than once. A $700m aid has been frozen and Pakistan has been made to understand that they will be left out in the cold if they refused to cooperate.

The supplies will resume sooner rather than later. Things will return to some semblance of normalcy and the war in Afghanistan will go on. But what this incident has taught the West is that they cannot rely on Pakistan as a ‘partner’ in their war on terror. Pakistan is not a reliable partner and if at all, this is an enemy nation whose interests are in direct conflict with those of the West.  The truth is that were Pakistan to coolly assess the situation they would realize that their best interests are served if they go along with the plans of the West for the region. But it has been proved over the decade that they do not want to see reason. They are looking at a scenario where the West withdraws from Afghanistan and therefore would not want NATO to have it comfortable in Afghanistan. The fiercely independent and lately radical streak of the Afghans does not help matters either.

What NATO needs most desperately is a sea port in the vicinity to ferry supplies to their troops in the landlocked Afghanistan. Karachi is their port of call as Iran of the Ayatollah’s won’t give them access. There is another option but that has deep Chinese imprint on it. The port nearest to American bases in Afghanistan is not Karachi but Gwadar in Balochistan and its little sister Pasni. Gwadar was an Omani colony till 1958 when Pakistan bought it back for a few million dollars. Gwadar has now been developed as a deep water port by the Chinese and their investment in Gwadar has been around $200 million. China sees Gwadar as a strategic outpost overlooking the Persian Gulf. Gwadar has strategic ramifications. The recent Iranian threat of shutting out the Strait of Hormuz has the West reeling. Balochistan has become more important than ever.

Pakistan took over Balochistan some nine months after its creation on August 14, 1947. For those crucial nine months Balochistan was a free country. It was in the name of Islam that this sparsely populated land acceded to Islamic Pakistan. Balochistan makes 44% of the land mass of Pakistan but has only 5% of its population. This rugged, barren landmass inhabited by tribes is a resource rich region. Balochistan is rich in oil and gas and has the largest copper deposits in the world. This is also the land where gold is aplenty. This is a very rich barren land.

Numerically the Baloch are weak. Add to that the division in tribes and you have a disparate people swamped by the overbearing Punjabis who dominate the army and rule the nation state of Pakistan. The simple tribal people who look up to their Sardars (tribal chiefs) are now being told by the army, dominated by the Punjabis as to how to live and what they will get as royalty from the resource rich land. Water is scarce and this rugged land has seen little development over the six decades of independence. The tough life of these tribal has made them think. They feel cheated and want their hokook (rights).  What they have got is bullets and the murder of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti along with his associates in 2006 by the Pakistan army has left them seething.

Map of Greater Balochistan

But the elements of discord between the Balochs and the Punjabi dominated Pakistan surfaced soon after independence. The revolt by Abdul Karim Khan in 1948 when his clan was forced to surrender their Kalat was the first rebellion by the fiercely independent Balochs. In 1958 Nawab Nowroz Khan started a guerilla war against the Pakistan state when the representation of the tribal chiefs was reduced by Islamabad. He died in Pakistani jail. Pakistan state built military bases in Balochistan and this was resented. The Sui gas fields were a strategic assets and it became incumbent on Pakistan to have greater military presence in Balochistan. The Marri, Bugti and the Mengal tribes resisted these army forays and the army retaliated by destroying their land. The One Unit policy was abolished by Yahya Khan and Balochistan as a province took shape in 1970 which included Gwadar. Intermittent guerrilla warfare by the major Baloch tribes has seen conflict between the Pakistan army and the Baloch nationalists. In 2009, the Baloch National Movement president Ghulam Mohammad Baloch and his associates Lala Munir and Sher Mohammad were handcuffed and taken and later their bodies were found riddled with bullets.

It is true that Baloch’s have been participating in Pakistan political process and have represented their state in the Pakistan parliament. But it is also true that they have always felt alienated and abused. The lack of infrastructure, development and basic amenities has meant that there is a strong undercurrent of nationhood among the Baloch’s of Pakistan. This was reflected in the declaration of independence by Khan of Kalat Mir Suleiman Dawood of an independent Balochistan in August, 2009.

The greater Balohistan straddles three nations – Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. This is one region where there has been a strong secular tradition and minorities like the Shia Hazaras and Hindus have seldom been targeted. The largest city Quetta has seen a surge in population after prolonged dry spells left rivers and canals dry. Poverty is rampant even by Pakistan standards and this has led to a sense of being wronged.

The aspiration of an independent nation state of Balochistan is therefore not an unreasonable one. Were the hardy tribal able to get access to the huge resources for themselves they would be a prosperous country. This resource rich land could prosper.

What if the declaration of Suleiman Dawood were to take shape and Balochistan were to cede from Pakistan with the help of the West. This would have regional and maybe international ramifications. The Sistan Balochistan region of Eastern Iran would come under immense pressure. Tehran would then have to focus more on its eastern borders and their engagement in Iraq would be diluted. Jundullah could become more active and a demand for a greater Balochistan would be a natural outcome. Would Baloch dominated Afghan province of Helmand clamor for amalgamation with Balochistan? One fallout of an independent  Balochistan would surely be a demand for a Pashtunistan. The Pathans of Afghanistan and Pakistan have had this desire to come together as one for long. A free Balochistan would surely give rise to such sentiments.

Pakistan as we know it today will then disintegrate. That may not entirely be good news. The problem of safe keeping of the huge nuclear arsenal of Pakistan will be the single biggest headache for the west. In this melee if proliferation did take place and some radical, loony elements got hold of a nuclear device, anything could be possible.

It is however undeniable that the simmering discontent in Balochistan will have to be addressed sooner or later. The stakes are high. A belligerent Iran and a snobbish Pakistan are almost dictating terms. Balochistan and the aspiration of their people cannot be set aside. If only the Pakistan Baloch territory were to claim independence then there might be an exodus from Sistan and Helmand to the land of a free Balochistan. Dissolution of the whole of Pakistan may not be easy. The Chinese have their own plans for Gwadar and they would hate to let this strategic sea port go. It will take a lot of resolve to make something like a free Balochistan happen. While it is true that the three prominent tribes – the Bugti, Marri and Mengal are at the forefront of this fight for a free Balochistan and are perhaps at the back of such outfits as Balochistan Liberation Army, it will take a more sustained and holistic movement for an independent Balochistan to happen.

An independent Balochistan would mean access to sea ports and resources of this resource rich land. It could also mean more meaningful dialogue with a more homogenous Pakhtunistan. The gas reserves of Daultabad in Turkmenistan and those in Balochistan could be marketed as an entity to markets in the east. A truncated Pakistan would have little option but to take a more conciliatory line for its own strategic benefits. The biggest challenge for the West would be to make the Pakistan nuclear arsenal benign either pre-balkanization or post creation of Balochistan. That a radical, nuclear Pakistan is a threat to world peace is a given. Voices of sanity include those that do not want to be a part of this increasingly rabid state. Ultimately, it will be the will of the people of Balochistan which will make this state transform into a nation. Soon  West will have no choice but to go along and make the dreams of theses hardy people  a reality, for regional and world peace.

Further Reading:

Pakistan’s Fatal Shore : Robert Kaplan

file:///C:/Users/Guest/Downloads/Pakistan%E2%80%99s%20Fatal%20Shore%20-%20Magazine%20-%20The%20Atlantic%20Kaplan.htm

Tribes and Rebels: The Players in the Balochistan Insurgency : Muhammad Tahir

file:///C:/Users/Guest/Downloads/The%20Jamestown%20Foundation%20%20Tribes%20and%20Rebels%20%20The%20Players%20in%20the%20Balochistan%20Insurgency.htm

Ethnicity and Nationalism in Balochistan: Rahul Mukand

file:///C:/Users/Guest/Downloads/Ethnicity%20and%20Nationalism%20in%20Balochistan.htm

JanLokpal Bill – the Larger Game Plan

The nation is riveted by the process of enactment of a law and amazingly it is about an Ombudsman Bill that has caught such attention. I will not go into the details of the proposed bill by the now most famous actors who call themselves the civil society and the media calls them Team Anna. I have discussed earlier in my writings of the enactment of a law that can be so all embracing that has the legislature, the executive as well as the judiciary under its ambit. But their influence does not end there. They are also supposed to be the watch dog for the media and the various NGO’s. They will keep a tab on the bureaucracy and that includes the defense forces. It is amazing how all this is being played out.

Prashant Bhushan says that Team Anna would like to do away with the present parliamentary system where there is a representative of the people in the parliament and would rather go in for a system where people have a direct voice. I do not know what form he is alluding to but my guess is that he means a system of constant referendum on every issue in this huge country of 120 cr people. My fear is that it will ultimately lead to a communist structure with a single party system. I have my doubts whether the man believes in multi party democracy.

Team Anna’s insistence that the CBI be made autonomous sounds good till one finds that they want the CBI under the Lokpal with all administrative powers of promotions, transfers etc. How does the CBI become transparent and independent if it is under a Lokpal who is not answerable to anyone? They go on to say that if the government does not want to give the CBI under the Lokpal then they must form another investigative agency that is directly under the Lokpal. The problem is that they want to have complete control from the time when a purported graft is registered to the time the verdict is announced. This is not an Ombudsman – this is totalitarian machinery with Stalinist control.

This whole JanLokpal debate has not come about in a vacuum. There have been forces out to weaken this country for some time now.  The Maoist threat has seen thousands lose their lives and live a life of fear where these ultra-Left brigands are in control. The defense forces have seen a spate of litigations slapped on the officers posted in J&K and in the North East on frivolous human rights issues. More than a thousand officers of the Indian army have been suspended when the army is short of officers, as it were. This is an attempt to weaken the country from within. Our security is under threat.

The other method employed to stem India’s growth is to agitate wherever new industrial plants or strategic assets are coming up. The case of Posco steel plant in Orissa is still fresh in people’s minds. Earlier there were vociferous campaigns against the Tehri Dam and later the Narmada Bachao Andolan that targeted the Sardar Sarovar. Self styled activists like Medha Patekar and Arundhati Roy were at the fore front in these ‘uprisings’.  Lately there have been constant protests outside the Koodakulam Nuclear Plant and at the proposed site for a nuclear plant in Ratnagiri. The idea is to make sure that India does not get these strategic assets. There are many other such cases where projects were delayed or have had to be scrapped due to constant agitation against them instigated by the same faces.

The fact is that ultra Left leaning NGO’s are having a free hand in whatever they want to do. Somehow they seem to have access to the highest echelons in the land. There are no rules for them and they seem to be a law unto themselves. They have infiltrated in the media big time. The case of ISI agent and the convener of Kashmir Action Center, Ghilam Nabi Fai  had big names from Indian media as his guests in conferences he held in the US, Prominent among them were Arundhati Roy, Dilip Padgaonkar, Radha Kumar, Kuldip Nayyer, Rajinder Sachchar, Angana Chatterjee and several others. He has claimed that he also had many Indian cabinet ministers as his guests. Media personalities and politicians hobnobbing with an ISI agent is not something that can be brushed under the carpet. These people must be investigated and punished as per law. But the law has been overlooked – it is as if for these exalted personalities there are different laws or no laws, at all. Radha Kumar and Dilip Padgaonkar were a part of the three member fact finding panel on Kashmir appointed by the government of India!

The UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi has something called a National Advisory Council. A glance at the members of this panel is enough to conclude that it is a conglomeration of Leftists who are there to advice Mrs Gandhi. These people have an agenda of their own and while they may claim to have been instrumental in bringing about Right to Information Act and the NAREGA (National Rural Employment Guarantee Act) and may claim it as a great achievement, it is also true that Mrs. Gandhi has enough talent within her own party and in the parliament such that she did not need to look outside. Many of the members of the NAC are a part of the NCPRI (National Campaign for People’s Right to Information). Ms. Aruna Roy is the leading light of this organization and Arvind Kajeriwal of Team Anna is supposed to be her prodigy. These people wield disproportionate influence in the government and have stymied many a decisions in the Cabinet to the detriment of the interests of the nation. The inter-operability clause between India and US is still languishing largely because of the veto of this motley group with dubious credentials.

The UPA has its own political agenda. They have used these ultra Leftists to make life difficult for BJP governments in Gujarat and in other states where there is a BJP led government. People like Teesta Setlvad are close to the Congress while they are card holding members of the Communist Party of India – their mission – to nail Narendra Modi and his government in lawsuits such that they cannot function. They also targeted BS Yeddyurappa, the former Karnataka Chief Minister and the BJP top brass rather than fight the onslaught politically thought it prudent to force Yeddyurappa to quit. The Left radicals are the dirty tricks department of the Congress and the UPA and therefore wield disproportionate influence in their scheme of things.

The BJP has reacted by siding with Team Anna when they saw that the Left radicals were at collision course with the UPA. My guess is that they want to make life difficult for the Congress and that is the sole reason why they are supporting Team Anna to the hilt. It becomes almost obscene the way Team Anna tries to distance themselves from the BJP and the Sangh Parivar because ideologically they are at two ends of the spectrum. Yet the BJP latches on to their coat tails unashamedly. The BJP calculation is that Anna movement is a widespread popular movement and they must latch on to it to come to power, besides they are making the life of the Congress and the UPA difficult and that is music to the ears of the top leadership of the BJP. Congress is also treading cautiously. They do not want to disown the Comrades totally as they have been useful in needling the BJP for long and have nuisance value if nothing else. They also do not want to attack Team Anna too vigorously as they will be seen to be for corruption and graft. As it is there have been too many cases of corruption during their tenure and they would like the people to forget about them all.

The truth of the matter is that the BJP has read the situation absolutely wrong.  There are almost 4.5 crore government employees both at the Center and the States including the Defense forces. If each has on the average 5 dependants that comes to more than 20 crore people. There is hardly any family where someone or the other is not an employee of the government. The draconian, absolutist JanLokpal Bill plans to bring all these employees under its ambit. No government employee will vote for a party that supports the JanLokpal Bill. BJP is sticking out like a sore thumb. This is similar to the ridiculous India Shining campaign of the early 2000’s. BJP’s numbers in the parliament will get reduced if they continue supporting the JanLokpal Bill in toto or with minor modifications. Nowhere in the world does an Ombudsman or a grievance redressal system given such sweeping powers. There is a real danger to democracy from this so called anti-graft mechanism. People should be educated about the dangers that lie ahead were the nation to go ahead with this proposed monstrous body called Lokpal. It is the bounden duty of the political parties and political leadership to educate the masses about the pitfalls.  Everyone wants a corruption free society, but it is also true that there is a way to go about it. The JanLokpal Bill which will sit over and above the legislature, executive and judiciary not to talk of the media is certainly not the way.

Most of the members of the so called civil society are NGO’s. Remarkably the Lokpal both in the government bill and in the JanLokpal Bill will monitor graft in the more than 50 lakh NGO’s that abound. How can the same people who run NGO’s check graft in these organizations? A separate watch dog must be instituted to keep a tab on the working of the NGO’s and graft in the media. The Lokpal cannot be entrusted with this onerous task.

What stunned me most was when I heard Brinda Karat pronounce that the Lokpal should also oversee corporate graft. This is nothing but a concerted effort to bring the nation to a screeching halt. I foresee mass resignations from government jobs and the bureaucracy refusing to make any decisions were the JanLokpal Bill passed in the House. This is the most serious assault on Indian democracy in our 64 years of independent history. We must do our utmost to stop any such moves. Lastly, the party that stands up to Team Anna and calls a spade a spade stands to gain the most politically. The BJP should not let another chance slip by to form the government in 2014.

No risk no gain

The UPA government announced with much fanfare the decision by the Cabinet to allow 51% foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail. They also allowed 100% foreign direct investment in single brand retail with a minimum investment of $100 million. The Parliament was in session when this Cabinet decision was announced. Suddenly all hell broke loose. There were people criticizing the decision from all quarters. There were political parties galore coming out against the decision to allow FDI in multi-brand retail. Some of the UPA allies like Trinamool Congress and DMK went out public with their decision to oppose the government on this issue. The government was numbed by the onslaught they faced not only from BJP, the Left but also from their allies. It was as if the family silver was being pawned out. It was rhetorical and lacked in substance.

For a few days after the decision was announced the government looked determined not to buckle under pressure. BJP led opposition had another excuse not to allow the parliament to function. They wanted a roll back on the decision and nothing less would do. They also wanted a debate on the issue with voting afterwards. Government was in a quandary. The tipping point I guess was the feedback that the Congress Party received from UP. Sanjay Singh, a Congress MP from UP went public with his opposition to the decision to allow FDI in retail. There were other Congress leaders who were uncomfortable with the decision. In a few months UP will be going to polls and such a sensitive issue would have been used by the opposition to raise hysteria against the Congress Party.

Those criticizing the entry of big retail chains like Walmart, Carrefour, metro and others say that this will affect the local kirana or the Mom and Pop stores as they are called in the US. Except that here in India families live off such stores and there are millions of Indians whose livelihood depends on such grocery stores. They further said farmers will be fleeced and foreign goods will be dumped in India affecting Indian manufacturing sector.

There is some truth in this. But people are making a monster of a move that is inevitable. The vocal Left was short of arguments when it was pointed out that China had allowed FDI in retail more than 10 years ago and they had benefitted from it immensely.

The truth is that while there is always a chance of goods being dumped in India it must also be pointed out that such retail giants also give an opportunity to Indian manufacturers and agriculturists to sell their products across the globe. It’s a two-way street. The fact that SAD government in Punjab initially welcomed the move and wrote a letter to the effect to PM’s office shows that the state of Punjab has benefitted from FDI in retail. Punjab is one of the few states where Bharati-Walmart has a presence. Evidently they have had a good experience with the hyper mart and therefore welcomed the move. There is nothing like experience. SAD representatives should have been asked to make a presentation as to why they were for FDI in retail and how Punjab had benefitted. Instead BJP and other opposition parties went into a huddle and persuaded SAD to change their stance and before long the Akalis also were found criticizing the move. Remarkably the Punjab wing of the Congress did not utter a single word against the move. They just kept quiet.

The truth of the matter is that FDI in retail will have more beneficial fallouts and fewer debilitating effects on the business environment. It is true that some middlemen may be marginalized but they may not go out of business as is being projected. The small grocery stores will also not be affected, for the simple reason that they have their own clientele which is local and their services are so efficient that they cannot but remain in business. Besides these big retail marts will be on the outskirts of the city. People will not travel for every thing from one end of the city to another.

There was another condition that the government had put – that only those cities that have more than a million populations will be allowed to have such hyper stores. That came to some 50 odd cities where such stores could be opened. So the smaller towns and cities would have remained untouched. I guess the government wanted to test waters and if these stores were found to be good for the economy then they could be allowed in smaller cities too. This was a prudent caution that government had shown.

As the discussion on having FDI in retail gained momentum there was a consensus building that FDI would indeed be good for the economy. People began to realize the benefit of fast movement of goods and services, farmers getting a better price for their produce, consumers getting products at rock bottom prices and exposure of Indian produce and goods to the world market. It is not farfetched to say that Indian fruits and vegetables will find shelf space in western markets and thus their demand will increase and farmers may get prices much higher than they ever imagined. If the farming community benefits there will be all round increase in consumption which will lead to greater demand for goods and services. Farmer is still the backbone of Indian economy and if the farmer prospers the whole of the nation will transform. Critics point out that only 3 to 5% of farmers have land big enough to get into a contract with retail outlets like Carrefour and Wal Mart. While this may be true I foresee cooperatives being formed which will then make direct sale to such retail giants. Imagine Amul like cooperative movement across India in agriculture. I am convinced that once these giant retailers open shop in the 50 odd cities government will be forced to allow them to open outlets in smaller towns as people will demand them. What has happened is that opposition has tried to kill the baby in the womb. This is absolutely unethical. When BJP was in power they wanted to go in for 100% FDI in retail. This was in 2004. Come 2011 and the UPA decide to allow FDI in retail they cry bloody murder. This is politicking of the worst kind. And for them to say with a straight face that things have changed between 2004 and 2011 is hilarious. No one believes them.

I think Rahul Gandhi and the Congress think tank blinked because of the upcoming UP elections. They thought that they would not be able to stand the outrage and the shrill rhetoric that the opposition had managed. Imagine all bazaar were closed across the length and breadth of the country to protest against the introduction of FDI in retail on December 1! Rahul Gandhi and the Congress leadership had a chance to take the opposition by the horns and taken an ekla chalo stance. The people were getting convinced that FDI in retail would be beneficial. It was a matter of taking a stand and sticking to it. It was a matter of conviction and educating people about the benefits of FDI in retail. Remember, they had the example of mobile telephony and how it had benefitted people not only in big towns but also in villages and hamlets across India. They could have gone out and taken a position that other parties are not interested in progress of the farmers and benefits to the common Indian – which is the truth. It was a matter of confidence among the leaders to be able to pull it off. Evidently they were short of confidence. I guess they missed an excellent opportunity of communicating with the people and standing out from the crowd. Introduction of FDI in retail could have been their unique selling proposition. They lacked faith in the commonsense of the aam admi. They lacked faith in their own ability to get across the message to the people. Congress in UP is just another party now vying for votes from the voter who wants more and all. They could have sent home the message that Congress is a party with a difference and that they care for the welfare of the people more than others and therefore is allowing foreign players in multi-brand retail. I think Congress has missed a trick and perhaps forfeited their chances of forming a government in Lucknow. This was a risk worth taking. This was one time they should have reposed faith in the intelligence of the people. This was an honest decision. This was a good decision. Honesty has a gravity of its own. Honest politics is good politics. Congress may rue the decision to put on hold FdI in retail in hindsight.

Addendum:  ANI, Dec 8, 2011:  Congress Members of Parliament were told on Thursday that the UPA Government was “compelled” to suspend the move to allow 51 percent foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail avoid a mid-term election.

Addressing the Congress Parliamentary Party here, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said going ahead with the decision could have created a “crisis” for the government.

“I am sorry to those members who had supported FDI in retail and might be feeling let down. But if we had gone ahead it could have created a crisis for the government,” he said. : Source Yahoo News

I think Pranab Mukherjee is trying to downplay the importance Congress is giving to UP elections, because if he were to say that they put on hold FDI in retail with a view to the upcoming UP elections and they do not do too well the opposition will go to town harping how Congress gave its all and still lost. Mamata Banerjee of Trinmool Congress is on record saying that while her party is opposed to FDI in retail she will not want the government to fall. That leaves the DMK and maybe the BJD. I do not think Congress would have had much problem in bringing them around. BJD had also said that had they been sounded out in advance they would have looked at the issue differently. Which basically means there was still room for maneuver.  The government could have brought the bill and ensured its passage had they really wanted. Their eyes are on UP elections and that is the only reason they have put on hold the decision on FDI in retail.

Related articles

• FDI in retail (thehindu.com)
• BJP sticks to opposition to FDI policy ahead of all-party meet (thehindu.com)
• NDA wanted 100 per cent FDI: Khurshid (thehindu.com)

Post 26/11 empty anti-terror rhetoric

Today is the third anniversary of the dastardly 26/11 Mumbai attacks where around 180 people were killed and more than 350 injured, some maimed for life. I have been watching the routine of remembering those who died including Major Sandeep Unnikrishnan who was a part of the NSG team sent to liquidate the terrorists and who was brutally tortured by the terrorists before being killed.  India is making much of the carnage that was 26/11 and to think of it, we should.

Remembering the dead is a noble thing, especially who died an unnatural death at the hands of terrorists. This was definitely avoidable. The question is what have we done since to bring to book those who were behind the 26/11 attacks? The Home Minister says that we have sent some 9 dossiers to Pakistan to enable them to act against men like Hafiz Saeed, Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi and others. They raise their hands in utter desperation that Pakistan is doing nothing. Pakistan responds by saying at one end of the spectrum that the proof’ against those behind 26/11 sent by India is inadequate to pass muster in a Pakistani court of law, to, well, things are proceeding and that the courts take their own time. India still does not know who is Major Iqbal and Sajid Mir¹ who were handling the terrorists and whose voices were recorded by Indian intelligence agencies during the 26/11 carnage.

Major Sandeep Unnikrishnan who died fighting terrorists in Taj Mahal Hotel

There are too many loose ends that just do not add up. There were ten terrorists we are told who landed in Mumbai and started killing people at random at four targets – the Taj Mahal Hotel, The Oberoi Trident, Chattrapati Shivaji Terminus and the Chabad House. The team that entered Taj Mahal hotel first killed at random at Café Leopold.

The uncanny and glaring truth is that nowhere did the terrorists run out of ammunition. There was some talk between the handlers and the terrorists at Trident that they were running short of ammunition but neither at the Taj Hotel nor Chabad House did the terrorists ever say that they were short of ammunition. The ten terrorists came to Mumbai with a rucksack each and that could not have been enough to keep on firing incessantly at the security forces for close to 72 hours. There were some people who either were already at the Taj before the team arrived or in the case of Chabad House were being supplied ammunition from somewhere in the congested  neighborhood.

Indian government and the security setup have postured that there was no support from anyone for the terrorists. Pakistan has said, though in muted voice that India should also look within and first weed out the terror infrastructure within. They could well be right. In fact, if they are saying so my guess is they know all about it and are spot on. Our secular Left dominated government postures that there are no terrorists in India and that Indian Muslims are secular. While the later is true that by and large Indian Muslims are secular but if there are some black sheep we must pluck them out and not hesitate in acting against them.

The utterly incomprehensible or a deliberate prevarication when the NSG commandos could not reach Mumbai from Delhi for 48 hours as the plane had gone to Chandigarh for refueling still rankles. There was another glaring fact that few people have noticed – NSG at that time was headed by one Mr J.K. Dutt who was an intelligence man and not someone from the army as is the norm². Mr. J.K. Dutt is also the man who is alleged to have helped the Purulia arms dropper Kim Davy escape after their plane landed at Mumbai. Was the delay in getting the NSG to Mumbai a deliberate or was it just a coincidence?  But then whatever happened, J.K. Dutt was only a cog in the wheel, he could not have done things on his own. There must have been people over and above him directing what and how to do and how to go about things.

Then there is the ProPublica investigation that details the role of David Coleman Hadley. If one were to go by these reports the CIA and the FBI did have an idea about some kind of an attack about to happen in Mumbai. They had warned the Indian security establishment but there were no specifics. They also did not issue a travel advisory to their citizens before the 26/11 attacks which they normally do. The red flags were there all around but either they were ignored completely, or not taken seriously. The third is the most disturbing conclusion, that there were people in the Indian establishment and even in some western establishments who knew what was about to happen but chose to look away.

The case of one Sabahuddin, Faheem Ansari and others³ that came up where it was mentioned that they were complicit in 26/11 attacks. The courts in India found so such evidence and they were let off. Pakistan cried bloody murder and India’s propensity to point fingers at Pakistan while doing precious little on their own front. Maybe there was some truth in their allegations. I understand that  Sabahuddin and Faheem Ansari have not been given a clean chit by the Supreme Court but then they are also not behind bars.

Meanwhile the one lone terrorist Ajmal Amir Kasab is tucked away in the Arthur Road Jail in an air conditioned egg shaped cell enjoying Indian hospitality while precious tax payer’s money is spent on his up keep. More than Rs 16 crores has been spent on his security and maintenance since 26/11 when some brave hearts most notably Constable Ombale who gave up his life but held on to the terrorist who was then captured by the people there.  The capture of Ajmal Amir Kasab was a fluke and the bravery of one man and perhaps had things gone according to the plans even he would have been liquidated. The terrorists were not meant to be captured. Kasab is a thorn in the flesh of Indian establishment and an irritant that they could well have done without.

There will be another 26/11 anniversary in a year’s time and again we will meet to remember the dead and the dastardly attack.  We will talk about our resolve to fight terror and then go back to life. These are empty words. This is empty rhetoric – more an insult to those who died in Mumbai on 26/11/2008 than a genuine tear for the departed and their families. Clean the mess within to force Pakistan to act. If India were serious we are fully capable of stopping all terror emanating from Pakistan and we do not need the US and the West’s help for this. There has to be a sense of honesty of purpose and a resolve unshaken by anything around.  We have a long way to go.

1. Mumbai: The Plot Unfolds, Lashkar Strikes and Investigators Scramble: ProPublica http://www.propublica.org/article/mumbai-attacks-david-coleman-headley-part-2

2. Purulia Arms Drop, Intelligence Agencies and the Mumbai Attack http://sharma24.wordpress.com/2011/04/29/purulia-arms-drop-intelligence-agencies-and-the-mumbai-attack

3. SC hears plea against Faheem, Sabahuddin acquittal http://news.taaza.com/source/627361-sc-hears-plea-against-faheem-sabahuddin-acquittal.html

Politics of Chicanery

Politics is the art of survival. Politicians will do just about anything to remain in business.  If that means a bit of deception or partial truthfulness or downright chicanery, they have no qualms. In recent times I can identify at least two instances of downright moral bankruptcy in diverting attention from issues that were Germaine to the politicians at the center of these political fraud, as it were.

The first instance was when Omar Abdullah, the Chief Minister of the volatile Jammu and Kashmir raised the demand for abrogation of AFSPA or the Armed Forces Special Powers Act from parts of Jammu and Kashmir saying that since the situation has been under control the ‘draconian’ AFSPA is no longer needed¹. The areas of Budgam and his home constituency of Ganderbal were the ones from which he proposed that AFSPA be removed. The army was at its wits end. The ground situation in J & K has been normalized with much effort from the army, CRPF and other paramilitary forces and the J&K police. For the army to operate in hostile conditions within national borders without legal protection was impossible. Omar Abdullah knew it as did the central leadership and the army. The army would have had no option but to withdraw from the two districts that the Chief Minister proposed. That would mean uninstalling communication and logistical infrastructure which would affect the operations in the whole of Jammu and Kashmir. It was a naïve proposal but a proposal that none of the other political parties could afford to disagree with. It was Omar Abdullah playing to the galleries – grandstanding as it were and trying to prove that he was fighting for the mustaqbil of the awaam of Jammu and Kashmir.  Neither the PDP nor the Congress nor any other party could criticize Omar Abdullah on this. PDP on the other hand did another act of bravado when they demanded that AFSPA be abolished in toto from the valley.

Those who understand the politics of Jammu and Kashmir understood Omar Abdullah’s need to raise the pitch. The background to his getting hot under the collar was the gory incident of the alleged custodial death of his party worker soon after the man came out of Chief Minister Omar Abdullah’s residence². The man in question is one Syed Muhammad Yusuf and there were some reports of argument on exchange of money for political gratification. Yusuf, a teacher by profession was close to the Abdullah family and his death soon after he came out of Omar Abdullah’s residence where he was allegedly beaten up raised a storm in J&K and across the nation. Omar Abdullah was forced to make a media appearance to put forth his case. There were few takers for what he had to say. Diversion was the only effective way out and when it comes to chicanery, Abdullah’s are past masters. The issue of abrogation of AFSPA was one that even the principal opposition party the PDP would not be able to reject.  Omar Abdullah promised that he would get the whole Muhammad Yusuf matter enquired to by a sitting judge of the High Court. This was not as easy as it seemed and Omar Abdullah knew it. The matter went to the Supreme Court where the request was struck down. This gave CM Omar Abdullah enough time to raise pitch against AFSPA. He made a few trips to Delhi on the AFSPA issue. All parties were seen to be backing the CM. The whole thing was a charade. Omar was never going to be a loser on this one. If the Center capitulated he would claim victory and if they rejected the proposal he would blame the Center for all the ills that afflict the Valley. Political chicanery won the day. The contentious matter of death of NC worker Muhammad Yusuf has been sidelined. The press has forgotten it as indeed the people of J&K. And quite flows the Jhelum.

The other instance of political chicanery comes from the largest state of Uttar Pradesh. The state goes to polls sometime in 2012 which is around the corner. Mayawati the leader of the Bahujan Samaj Party is the Chief Minister. Coming from a deprived section of the society, the Dalits the lady has done little for her constituency. From the times of the Assembly election to the Lok Sabha elections vote percentage from the Dalits that are her vote bank to her party have decreased by 20 percentage points -from more than 85% to less than 66%. Mayawati knows that she is on a sticky wicket. She cannot bank on her Dalit vote bank nor on the Brahmins who voted for her in huge numbers. She has done precious little for the development of the state and therefore there is a widespread disillusionment with her government. What she has done is built parks and installed her own statues which she garlands herself at their unveiling! People are aghast at her indifference. Corruption in UP, it is said has reached unprecedented proportions. One DIG who talked about corruption in UP was branded as mentally unstable by the Mayawati government, admitted to a mental asylum and has since been sent home to recuperate.

What does a politician do when faced with such unsavory situation? Predictable, resort to chicanery! Mayawati had this trump card of sorts when she proposed that UP be divided into four smaller states. The idea of division of the humungous state of Uttar Pradesh into four smaller states of Harit Pradesh, Awadh, Bundelkhand and Purvanchal is nothing new³.  It is the fact that Mayawati has got passed in the state assembly the proposal of division of UP that has put the cat among the pigeons. Mayawati in effect is promising that she will get the state divided into four separate identities knowing full well that people of the state would prefer smaller states. She knows that if she were to ask for votes on the basis of her performance her efforts will come a cropper. So she is promising the formation of these four smaller states and asking for votes. The idea is such that neither the Congress nor the BJP has been able to reject it outright. Only the Samajwadi party has come out openly against the division of the state. Mayawati also knows that except for Bundelkhand the other three proposed states have the backing of the majority of people there, irrespective of caste or religion.

The chicanery comes out in the open when one realizes that there are other states that are facing similar demands and the center has not been able to go about bifurcating them. One prime example is the proposed state of Telangana which is demanded be carved from Andhra Pradesh. The other long standing demand is that of Gorkhaland which wants a separate statehood away from West Bengal. Then there is demand for Vidarbha be constituted from Maharashtra. All these demands are long standing and in case of Telangana the agitation has such emotional outpouring that it is believed that more than 600 men and women have committed suicide for the creation of the state.

Mayawati knows very well that any division of Uttar Pradesh is not going to happen anytime soon. It may take decades for this to be decided. In her heart of hearts she may even be dead against the division of Uttar Pradesh because she knows that her chances of coming to power in a united UP are much more than in four different smaller states. But she sees no harm in promising something that she knows’ is not going to happen and even if it does it won’t happen in the next few years. She finds it politically expedient to promise something that people can look forward to and vote for her in hopes she will get the states to fructify. She could not give bread and infrastructure so she is giving hopes and an alibi for the lack of development during her five year stint. Her opponents are finding it difficult to disagree with her on this one. They cannot criticize her on this move and even the debate over the lack of development in UP has now been diverted to whether the state can be governed effectively in its present form. This is political chicanery at its worse. The recent elections will throw answers to this absolutely ridiculous political maneuvers that have taken the debate from the mundane to the absurd.

Our political class needs to have a more responsible attitude towards the people they are supposed to serve. They would do well not to test the intelligence of the people. They will get a befitting reply.

 

 

Reference: 

1. With decline in militancy in J&K, residents echo Omar’s sentiments on AFSPA removal http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/afspa-omar-abdullah-jammu-and-kashmir-residents/1/160402.html
2.     Omar Abdullah and the custodial death of Yusuf http://expressbuzz.com/school/omar-abdullah-and-the-custodial-death-of-yusuf/325037.html
3. Mayawati’s sudden impact: 4-way division of UP http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/Chunk-HT-UI-HomePage-TopStories/Maya-s-sudden-impact-4-way-division-of-UP/Article1-769341.aspx

 

Needless Belligerence

This belies logic – but then most things in Pakistan do not make sense. The primary being – how is it that while India became a thriving democracy after partition, the other half, Pakistan never could shake off the role of the Army in all walks of life.  Again, the Pakistan army chief has warned the US that they should think ten times before any military forays into Pakistan. His reasoning being that unlike Iraq and Afghanistan, Pakistan is a nuclear weapons state¹. Point taken General Ashfaq Kayani, but then why have the things come to such a pass?

NATO presence in Afghanistan soon after 9/11 attacks has seen a see-saw relationship between the US and Pakistan.  This worsening of relations saw a nadir when the American embassy in Kabul was attacked by the Taliban a couple of months ago. The US had turned a blind eye to all the double games and chicanery by Islamabad. But they could not tolerate Osama bin-Laden ensconced just outside a military school in Abbotabad. Americans eliminated the dreaded terrorist and the US-Pak relations saw another trough. The worst part is that the credibility of Pakistan nose dived and Washington did not believe a word of what Islamabad was saying any longer. The Kabul embassy attack was the veritable last straw.

US had understood early on that looking at Afghanistan in isolation meant not understanding the situation at all. It was then President Obama hyphenated Pakistan with Afghanistan and the much discussed Af-Pak policy gained currency. Drone attacks inside Pakistan territory were increased. The problem was that terrorists would hit targets in Afghanistan and seek refuge in Pakistan which was short distance away.

The US had tried to make Islamabad understand that they need to get rid of terror machinery and think about development and growth in Pakistan. The one mistake that Americans made was to declare that they would be withdrawing by 2014. Their allies began withdrawing from Afghanistan soon after. The British, the Dutch and the Canadians have left and the French are on the way out. This has emboldened Pakistan and they take these terror outfits as strategic asset and would be loathe to dismantle them at this critical stage. They plan to use them to overrun Afghanistan and take Kabul as they did when the Najibullah regime was on its last legs. Pakistan reckons that the US has already lost the war in Afghanistan and that they do not have the stomach to remain in the region for long. For this perception to have gained currency it is Washington that is at fault and while Obama hit the nail on the head with his Af-Pak policy he committed a blooper with his announcement that US will withdraw by 2014.

The Haqqani network was behind the attack on the American embassy in Kabul – it has been established. Americans want Pakistan to take action against Sirajuddin and Jalaluddin Haqanni. Pakistan is not too keen to act against them as that will have negative impact on public perception. Besides they see the Haqannis and the Quetta shura of one-eyed Mullah Omar as strategic asset. They will be used to take over Afghanistan once the Americans are gone, which Islamabad feels is sooner rather than later. The French withdrawal makes Islamabad ever more convinced that it is curtains for the West in Afghanistan.

Yet Americans have a task at hand and complete they must before the 2014 withdrawal. Will they make a complete withdrawal is anybody’s guess. Chances are that there will be a token presence of at least 25,000 troops in three or four bases across Afghanistan to maintain a foothold in the region. But then if that is the salutary presence that Pakistan has to contend with post 2014, why will they do Washington’s bidding? These are the ‘strategic’ equations that are emerging for Pakistan.

But why is the US in the region in the first place. The primary goal is to neutralize terror outfits in the region that can be a threat to western security interests around the globe. A corollary to the ‘fighting terrorism’ is the proposed gas pipeline from Daulatabad gas fields in Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and Pakistan on to the lucrative Indian markets.  But such a gas pipeline is possible if there is peace in the region. Americans have been talking to various warlords and Haqqanis have also been approached. Peace is elusive till such time that warlords are taken care of. A gas pipeline that runs across Afghanistan is a vulnerable target and can be damaged anytime without much effort.

The American resolve can be gauged from the fact that they have amassed troops on the Afghan side of the border with North Waziristan and are threatening to take action against Haqqanis if Pakistan did not go after them. India on its part has started military exercises named ‘Sudarshan Shakti’² in the Thar desert to keep Pakistan army on its toes. Pakistan is exposed on both the flanks. It is not a pretty situation from Pakistan’s point of view and there is jingoism galore in Pakistani media and war cries are heard incessant and loud.

Pakistan has always looked for strategic depth in Afghanistan and to have leverage with India. Such ambitions from Islamabad are understandable. There is another very important paradigm in any strategic dialogue – the economics of a nation. If anything it is the economics that leads the politics of any nation in today’s world.  Pakistan is doing woefully economically. They do not have the leverage therefore. One reason why Pakistan would like the US to stay the course in Afghanistan is to milk Washington as they have been doing all these years. They depend on American aid and would fold up economically were it not for American largesse.

American interests in the region are a boon for Pakistan. They can encash it if they want to the benefit of the common good of Pakistani awam. They can get developmental aid which they can use to buld infrastructure that is primarily of British vintage. But then they will have to abandon the policy of lionizing terror outfits that the ISI and the army so gleefully nurture.

Pakistan has a historic opportunity to make that quantum jump economically and become a serious player in the region. They have everything that a nation needs to do well. They have fertile soil, industrious people and ports and mineral wealth to better the lot of common Pakistani. They must get over their fixation of having a ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan and a leverage with India. In fact if they are really serious about having a strategic depth in Afghanistan they must allow peace in the region so that the gas pipeline from Daulatabad can fructify. They will then have a strategic depth in Afghanistan and also leverage with India. They will have the keys to energy resources of India and can dictate terms to New Delhi. That is as strategic a leverage as any that Islamabad can aspire for. That they will earn millions of dollars as royalty will be another boost to their economy.

Any Pakistani leader worth his salt should understand that they have a unique position and if they made sure that there was peace in the region and the TAPI was made possible it would give a huge fillip to Islamabad strategically, economically and even militarily. They will have New Delhi eating out of their hands. Were the TAPI to reach Pakistan India would be in an unenviable situation of making the hard choice of either accepting the pipeline or rejecting it. India will be in a very uncomfortable position of neither being able to accept the pipeline nor being able to say a flat ‘no’ to it as that would be frowned upon by the West. The present Pakistan position where the nation has to make hard choices and is veritably between a rock and a hard place will be the situation India will find herself in if the pipeline reaches Pakistan. New Delhi will be loathe to accept gas sourced through Pakistan and yet be unable to strike down the proposal. India has reluctantly agreed to the TAPI knowing that this is just a posture to make life difficult for Pakistan knowing fully well that TAPI is not going to happen anytime soon. Were it actually to fructify Pakistan will have a strategic leverage over India that they can use to their benefit- and they are past masters at leveraging their position.

As said earlier, the present belligerence where US and Pakistan are glaring at each other does not make sense either from Pakistan’s point of view or from Afghanistan’s future. What will Islamabad gain were they able to capture Kabul a few years from now through their proxy- the Taliban? The real strategic depth would be if they have a say both in Afghanistan and keys to India’s energy supplies. That would be real strategic depth on both the eastern and the western flanks. I understand that China may not like India getting gas cheap through this pipeline, but Pakistan is a sovereign nation and while they have an ideal equation with Beijing they may not do as the Chinese tell them to do always. Pakistan must learn to talk from a position of strength. Going around with a begging bowl does no good to Pakistani pride. They have no reason to be poor and on the edge all the time. They do not need to beg. They have enough if they play their cards right and get their priorities sorted out. The US is not leaving the region in a hurry. It is a prudent thought that radicalism in Pakistan must be curbed and that can happen only if terror outfits some posing as social workers were to be dismantled and focus returns to economic and infrastructure development. Haqannis and Mullah Omar are names that ISI props up from time to time. Its time Pakistan army goes back to their barracks, stop funding and supporting terror outfits and become a responsible nation with a future to look forward to. My guess is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will try and impress upon Pakistan leadership about the choices that they have and encourage them to make the right ones on her trip that starts today.

1. Kayani: US must think 10 times before anti-Pak offensive: The Tribune, Chandigarh. http://www.tribuneindia.com/2011/20111020/main2.htm
2. http://defencetech.in/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=809:the-southern-army-will-hone-its-combat-edge-by-sudarshan-shakti-&catid=34:army&Itemid=53

‘Kissingerism’ in Indian Politics

Henry Kissinger, the grand old statesman of American politics famously said – ‘there are no permanent  friends or foes in international relations, only permanent interests’. This truism is being taken to an extreme by the Indian political class. The political convictions are sidelined, the philosophies ignored and everyone is ready to bed with anyone else if their interests are achieved.

The three main protagonists in today’s politics at the national level are – the ruling UPA, the opposition NDA and remarkably a non-political outfit loosely termed as Team Anna. Team Anna is a conglomeration of individuals who call themselves ‘civil society’ and are Leftists by character. In fact those who have seen them closely vouch for the fact that these are not just Leftists but on the extreme end of the spectrum – the Maoists and have a totalitarian agenda. They have their extensions in National Advisory Council that has been constituted by Sonia Gandhi. They have their tentacles spread in judiciary, executive etc.  Their stated agenda is to fight corruption and to have clean politics in the country. They have promoted Anna Hazare, a Gandhian  as a front and are using him as a tool to further their interests. They have advanced a JanLokpal Bill the draft of which gives sweeping powers to the Ombudsman both at the Central level and down to the panchayats. They want to usurp power through deceit.

The NAC was constituted by Sonia Gandhi to advice the government on various issues. They did manage to give the nation the Right to Information which has made a difference, I must concede. But the agenda of the NAC is as much to check the rise of the BJP which the UPA feels threatened from. This conglomeration of ultra-Leftists is being used by the UPA to bludgeon the NDA at all points in time. Their sense of insecurity stems from the fact that BJP ruled states are performing exceptionally well and their support is growing. Now the NAC is proposing an Anti-Communal Violence Bill which stands to marginalize the rights of the majority and give an edge to the minorities. This is again political posturing as the NDA depends heavily on the majority Hindu votes and were the majority marginalized and bludgeoned the minority votes will consolidate for the UPA which they can leverage to their advantage knowing that Hindus are a divided house.

But the extreme Left that is the civil society has an agenda of its own. They are not content with being a tool in the hands of the Congress led-UPA to run down the BJP led NDA. They are as keen on power as is the ruling coalition. Their methods however are a bit different. They do not believe in democracy and multi-party system. Yet they are desperate to have a say in the functioning of the government. They have chosen back door entry into the political system. Their pet project is to get the JanLokpal Bill that they have drafted be accepted in toto by the government. Congress led UPA is wary of these moves. They are rightly concerned about an extra-constitutional body taking over the government and ruining the democratic setup that has served the nation so well. They are trying to ward off the threat that these Maoists turned civil society pose to the national democratic fabric. These Leftists have served the Congress well and have been useful tools in hitting out at the BJP led NDA. They are therefore careful not to go after Team Anna unrestrained. While the government did not hesitate to use brutal force against Baba Ramdev they were loathe to do the same when Anna Hazare sat on a fast. Yet check they must these Left marauders or else the monster that is the Left extremism will gobble up the government and the nation in one go. So they are prevaricating on the JanLokpal Bill and are trying to pass a diluted version that is their version which is absolutely unacceptable to the Left radicals that constitute Team Anna.  The simple reason being that then their strategic interest will not be achieved which is to usurp power by floating an institution that is over and above the elected executive and even the judiciary. Having managed to get Anna Hazare’s fast broken and confused the situation by placing other versions of the Lokpal Bill – one by Aruna Roy, another by Arundhati Roy and yet another by one Jaiprakash Narain the government thought they had bottled the genie that is the Civil Society in the garb of Team Anna. In fact they have used the friends of Team Anna like Aruna Roy and Arundhati Roy both known Maoist sympathizers to scuttle the JanLokpal Bill. Now Arvind Kejriwal, one of the prominent Team Anna members says that there is no Aruna Roy version or an Arundhati Roy version of the Lokpal Bill and that there is only one JanLokpal Bill that they have put forth. Evidently the Left brotherhood has come together and Aruna Roy and Arundhati Roy have been silenced by the Left Umma.

Aruna Roy is the same person who has been spearheading the NAC and has a vocal anti-BJP agenda. But that does not dissuade the BJP and the RSS to support the JanLokpal Bill. It is amazing how the BJP has found the JanLokpal Bill as a progressive, pro-democracy institution that will fight corruption at all levels. The truth of the matter is that the BJP is supporting the JanLokpal Bill to make life difficult for the Congress and to cash in on the anti-corruption sentiment that Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev movement have generated. BJP is in a hurry to come back to power. It appears they are ready to sup with the Devil if it ensures that they can get to the Delhi gaddi. BJP chief Nitin Gadkari has given in writing that his party will support the JanLokpal Bill and get it passed if they come to power. They know that the Bill is a direct assault on the democratic fabric of the nation yet to fight the Congress and to mobilize the masses that they feel are swayed by Anna‘s movement so as to come to power, they are ready to promise something that they know they will never be able to deliver. They are reaching out to a group of people who have been targeting them all through and who are after Narendra Modi, their Gujarat Chief Minister. ‘Kissingerism’ is being taken to an extreme in domestic politics of the nation to lengths which even the Old Fox would deem unreasonable.

The fun does not stop here. Team Anna is also fully aware that BJP and RSS are anathema to their ideology. But their thirst for surreptitious power is so great that they are ready to take the help of the Rightists in hopes that this will generate such massive outrage in the nation against corruption that the government will have no option but to accept the JanLokpal Bill as presented by Team Anna. Anyone is jumping into bed with just about anyone else to further their own interests.  It is comical the way things are going.

Congress is pointing out that Team Anna is taking help from RSS and the BJP and people like Prashant Bhushan are explaining with a straight face that anyone who is keen on ‘fighting corruption’ is welcome, if it means RSS and BJP then so be it! Advani has started a Rath Yatra to cash in on the corruption issue raised by Baba Ramdev and Anna Hazare. That has raised the hackles of Team Anna, so Anna Hazare will also go on a long tour across the nation as the real savior of the people against graft. They are loathe to let Advani and the BJP hijack what they believe is their agenda and their USP, namely – the issue of corruption.  By pointing out that Team Anna is getting help from the rightists the Congress is weakening the very forces that they have used time and time again to bludgeon and are still using to attack BJP ruled states.  Yet they must because they have jumped into the bed with the rightists to further their interests to try and get the JanLokpal Bill any which way. Team Anna is therefore telling the voters in Hissar to vote for anyone but the Congress – calling it a referendum on JanLokapl, which it definitely is not. The Congress can’t believe what they are facing and are at sixes and sevens as to how to tackle this nuisance that is Team Anna and their obnoxious JanLokpal Bill. They had thought that by getting Anna Hazare to break his fast they had resolved the problem. They had further thought that they would pass a Lokpal Bill of their choice with limited powers to the Ombudsman that is the Lokpal in the Winter Session of Parliament. But the recent developments where Team Anna has upped the ante and Anna Hazare has threatened to go on a fast once again if the JanLokpal Bill is not passed has put the government in a fix. With Aruna Roy and Arundhati Roy withdrawing their versions of the Lokpal Bill the division in the Civil Society has also dissipated.  Clearly the government is in a bind.

The solution to this problem lies in democratic forces aligning and speaking as one against totalitarian forces, but then both will have to make sure they do not use such forces against each other. Is this possible?  With ‘Kissingerism’ the flavor of the political class as of now, any such sane moves look improbable if not totally impossible.

The Cash-For-Vote Scam and the BJP Bluff

Three people have been put behind bars in cash-for-vote scandal that hit the nation on the fateful evening of the 22^nd of July, 2008.  The former Samajwadi Party Rajya Sabha MP Amar Singh, and two former BJP MP’s   Mahabir Singh Bhagora and Faggan Singh Kulaste have been arrested and put behind bars. BJP led opposition has been castigating the government for engineering the cash for vote scam and how money was being thrown around to get the required numbers in Parliament for the all-important July 22 voting on The Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Bill.

The nation has been outraged by the whole scandal. The way bundles of currency were put on display in sacks full of hard cash was indeed very dramatic. The nation was stunned and what followed was an inquiry into the whole scam. The Congress looked on the back foot and for most people the ruling UPA had egg on its face. The Speaker of the Lok Sabha Somnath Chatterjee condemned the whole episode and after his stint was over resigned from the membership of the Communist Party of India (M).

The two former BJP MP’s who have been put behind bars were the ones who had engineered the sting along with their colleague Ashok Argal. But it is also true that it was not just these three MP’s along with CNN-IBN that engineered the sting that was at the core of the cash-for-votes scandal. L.K. Advani the patriarch of the BJP has stated on the floor of the House that the sting was engineered by him and that it was unfortunate that the whistle blowers have been jailed while the real brains behind the attempt to bribe MP’s to vote for the UPA during the crucial July 22 vote in the Parliament are still not identified. He challenged the government to arrest him as he had given the go ahead to his MP’s to do the sting operation. Remarkably the controversial Tehelka newspaper had also alleged much earlier that both Advani and Arun Jaitley were not only in the know of the sting but coordinating the whole operation through Sudhendra Kulkarni who was the secretary to Advani.

The cash-for-vote scam was put in the cold storage soon after and while the Delhi police was given the task of finding out the people behind the ghastly attempt to bribe MP’s to vote in a particular way, the probe was hardly moving forward. It was after the Supreme Court took cognizance of the matter that the case began to move. It was then established that Sanjeev Saxena who was an associate of Amar Singh and one Suhail Hindustani were behind the cash-for-vote scam. It was Sanjeev Saxena who went with the cash to the MP’s residence and was assisted by Suhail Hindustani. Suhail is a small functionary of the BJP and no one knew him before this scam broke out. It also appears that Sudhendra Kulkarni was in touch with CNN-IBN and had facilitated the sting. Kulkarni might find himself behind bars soon as he is set to return to India and face the courts.

People are asking as to who is the beneficiary in this whole cash for vote scam. The fingers are pointing towards the Congress and the UPA-I, as one would logically deduce. It is also being said that Ahmed Patel and Amar Singh tried to bribe BJP MP’s. The Delhi police found no evidence against Ahmed Patel in the matter.

There was this other detail that emerged in the WikiLeaks that suggested that Gandhi confidant Satish Sharma and Nachikata Kapoor, a close friend of his had shown some US Embassy staff cupboard full of cash which they proposed to use to buy MP’s. The staffer found this distasteful and ‘not necessary’.  Both Kapoor and Sharma have denied talking to any US Embassy staff and showing any horde of cash.

The whole July 22 vote in the Parliament on the Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Bill was a murky affair. The situation had become complicated after the Left parties had distanced themselves from the UPA alliance which they were a part of and the government had fallen in a minority of 268 in a required number of 272. The question was as to where will the UPA get those crucial few votes. The Manmohan Singh government looked pretty confident. The truth is there was reason for Manmohan Singh to be confident. And the reason was not because he had people like Amar Singh and Ahmed Patel and Satish Sharma working overtime to ensure that the government did not fall, but because there was no way the Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Bill would not passed in the parliament. The stakes were too high and there were forces at work that were over and above Manmohan Singh and the Congress party. This was one Bill that had to pass, come what may and the whole cash for vote drama, as Ambassador  David Mulford said , “was clear theatrics.”¹

What Ambassador David Mulford has said in muted voice is critically true to understand what happened on that fateful evening of July 22, 2008 in the Indian Parliament. Why did the Ambassador who was there to see the Nuclear Bill through chose to say what he did? It means that the whole sting and the following dramatic display of cash had no substance in it. It must be remembered that the government not only survived the voting in parliament but had a comfortable margin of 275 for the Bill and only 256 against it with 10 members abstaining.  The Opposition MPs who voted in favour of government were from the BJP, the Bharatiya Janata Dal (BJD), the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the Janta Dal-Secular (JDS), the Janta Dal (United) JD (U), the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), the Nagaland People’s Party (NPF) and the National Loktantrik Party (NLP)²

The BJP, one would assume got a terrible beating after the sensational appearance of bags of currency notes. But was it really a loss for BJP either? The answers are not too simple. As said earlier, there was no way the Nuclear Bill was not going to get passed. My hunch is that had the Bill failed muster the BJP would have asked for a revote on some technical grounds and seen to it that the Bill passed in the next round of votes. Advani would have seen to it that the Bill got passed.

If the BJP was so keen to get the Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Bill passed then why all the efforts at a sting and the following display of currency notes in parliament with millions watching the live coverage of the parliamentary proceedings around the world. The answer to the whole sordid affair also lies in the huge media coverage of the event and the BJP leadership reckoning that if they did something as dramatic as waving wads and wads of currency notes the prime minister would have no choice but to tender his resignation on the floor of the House. They calculated that the public outrage would be such with millions watching the proceedings live that the government would have no option but to resign. This was a calculated risk that the BJP top brass took. It was during the pandemonium in the House for close to half an hour when Adavni and Swaraj and others repeatedly demanded that the PM resign. Their shrill angst at the purported attempt at bribing MP’s and loud demands for resignation of the government that were a dead giveaway. It took some time for the UPA to get its bearings with Pranab Mukherjee walking out of the House only to return and say that the government will not resign and that they were ready to face a vote. For a moment it appears that Sardar Manmohan Singh was almost on the verge of writing his letter of resignation there and then. The wily Pranabda, it appears stopped him from taking any hasty steps and went out into his office only to reemerge and declare after a brief confabulation with the PM and Sonia Gandhi that all was well and that they must insist on a vote in the House. That took the wind out of the sails of the BJP, as it were. Suddenly Sushma Swaraj and Advani had a sheepish look and were like cattle going to a slaughter house. The bluff that the BJP had tried to pull off had been called and they knew that they had no choice but to ensure that the Bill be passed, which in turn meant that the government had to survive. This huge bluff was such a blow to the BJP that the government not only survived the July 22 vote but also completed its term. Had Advani, Swaraj and the rest of the BJP not tried this huge charade maybe at a later juncture, with the Left weaning away from the UPA, it was possible that the government could fall at a later date. But the eagerness of the BJP to bring down the government was such that it back fired. Had it been any other Bill than the Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Bill maybe the government could have fallen. The BJP chose the wrong time and the wrong Bill to try and overthrow the government through sheer bluster and trying to pull a fast one.

As I said earlier, there was no way the government was going to fall over a Bill as important as the Nuclear Bill. The BJP knew that the Bill had to pass come what may. Why did the BJP know that the Bill had to pass? Because they had given an undertaking to the US that they would not come in the way. This was stated as much by none other than L.K. Advani when Henry Kissinger came calling before the crucial parliamentary vote. Imagine The Old Fox descending in New Delhi and meeting leaders of various political parties. It is also no secret that the Rightist BJP has had close relations with the West particularly with the US over the years. The West is more comfortable with the Rightist BJP than with the Left-of-Center Congress hobnobbing with ultra-Left for political expediency. When men like Henry Kissinger make a call, things move in a particular direction. It may not be too farfetched to say that the emergence of the BJP as a political alternative to the Congress is not just a coincidence. There were forces that wanted a rightist alternative to the Congress on the Indian political horizon. And then to expect the BJP to reject the pet proposal of the US government on which the US president had staked his own reputation was a political impossibility. There was no way the BJP could afford to let the Bill fall on the floor of the House. Jaswant Singh, one of the founding members of the BJP voiced his displeasure at the whole drama that was cash-for-vote. The man had reasons for doing so.

The question then arises as to why did Amar Singh and his side-kicks did what they did. And if indeed Nachiketa Kapoor and Satish Sharma were flaunting hordes of cash as claimed and never denied by Mr Sharma why did they do it. American officials have said that the whole exercise of trying to bribe the MP’s was unnecessary and something that was just not required. The simpleton PM had voiced his concern to his US counterpart that he may find it difficult to get the Nuclear Bill passed in the Indian parliament. The Americans  had obliquely indicated that they would ensure that the Bill got passed.

I believe that the US government had ensured that the Bill got passed. For them it was no great effort when they knew they had leverage with the principal opposition party the BJP. They however did not discourage the Congress and the UPA to make efforts at their own end. That is perhaps what explains the attempt, howsoever crude it was by some people to try and buy MP’s. I am not saying that Amar Singh  or Ahmed Patel or Satish Sharma tried to buy MP’s. The process of finding out the facts is still going on. But Amar Singh is in jail as of now and if one were to assume that he tried to throw money at some MP’s I guess he was doing on his own initiative. It must be remembered that soon after the cash fo vote scam Amar Singh was ousted from the Samajwadi Party. It seems that Mulayam Singh Yadav did not have a clue that Amar Singh was trying such theatrics. When it did come out in the open, a defiant Amar Singh played martyr for the Congress government and tried to justify all efforts fair and foul outside the Parliament right after the passage of the Bill talking pot shots at Advani and swearing his allegiance to Manmohan Singh. It could be that Amar Singh wanted to quit the SP and move the Congress and this was his way of alleging loyalty to Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi.  For his part Manmohan Singh government stalled the inquiry into the scam. It was this scam that was a Damocles sword on his head and which made Congress cagey about accepting Amar Singh into the party. The SC monitoring the scam saw the culmination of the probe and the ultimate arrest of Amar Singh.

As for the drama that was the waving of wads of currency notes in the Parliament, it sure did shock the nation and more importantly the Congress Party. The UPA had been assured by the US that all the holes had been plugged and even after the Left had withdrawn support the Bill would sail through the Parliament.  It was when the drama started that Pranab Mukherjee began to have doubts about the passage of the Bill. My take is that Pranabda then rushed to his office and contacted people who he had been confabulating with, it could be David Mulford or some other high US functionaries in DC. Be as it may, he was reassured by them that there were no glitches and that he should insist on the vote be carried, which he did when he came back. This then took the BJP by surprise. They had reckoned that the PM would resign on the floor of the House. They had also thought that they would then get the Bill passed with minor changes and take the credit for it. But that was not to be. The Congress insisted that the PM would resign if they fell short of numbers. That was a masterstroke from Pranabda and he had veritably checkmated Adavni and Co. who had no option but to support the Bill. An embarrassed BJP then expelled the 8 MP’s that had voted against the party but that was just a face saver. Most parties did not expel their MP’s who had cross voted but just asked for an explanation. The cash for vote was a stunt gone horribly wrong for the BJP. It ensured that the UPA completed its full term unhindered even after the Left had withdrawn support. As for the Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Bill, there was never an iota of doubt about its passage – that was a foregone conclusion especially after the appearance of Henry Kissinger on the scene.

Update Sept., 20, 2011: There was this interesting comment from Renuka Chaudhary, the Congress spokeswoman who said as regards cash-for-vote scam that ‘pran jaye par Bachchan no jaye’. It must be pointed out here that a few days after Amar Singh got admitted to AIIMS Amitabh Bachchan and daughter Shewta went to meet Amar Singh. Could it be that the crores that were displayed on the floor of the house came from Amar Singh who had in turn sourced it from his friend Amitabh Bachchan?

The question is why would the two do such a thing. And the answer is that both had one thing in common – their innate desire to be in the good books of the First Family of India – the Gandhi family. Bachchans were close to Gandhis till things went sour after the marriage of Priyanka. Since then there has been a frosty aloofness between the Gandhis and the Bachchans. Amar Singh was for long trying to switch over to Congress – he was tired of SP and made no bones about it.

It could well be that both Bachchan and Singh thought that this was the right time to prove their undying loyalty to the Gandhis. The government was in a minority or so they thought. They would save the government and earn the gratitude of the Gandhis. It was a childish thought and bereft of political savvy. But then neither Amitabh Bachchan nor Amar Singh can be credited with astute political acumen. Bachchan may have thought worth his while to throw a few crores to earn the goodwill of the Gandhis. Amar Singh being the manipulator in-chief would of course get the credit. Who knew that the all consuming ambition of a Sindhi would be their undoing. What happened next must have left them open-mouthed!

1. Diplomatic cables are ‘generally accurate’: David Mulford  : Hindustan Times, New Delhi, March 18, 2011
2. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2008-07-23/news/27719712_1_cross-voted-trust-vote-bjp-mps  Economic Times

Related articles

• Indian police arrest lawmaker accused of bribery (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
• http://videonewsnet.com/video-news-articles/wikileaks_disclosures_drive_manmohan_singh_into_corner/

Opposition as Enemy

‘Either you are with us or against us’ George W. Bush famously said after the 9/11 attacks and the subsequent Iraq intrusion. What The US told the world then, here in India there is a similar message doing the rounds in politics – that is if one can hear it. Democracy as we know it has the multiparty system at the root. Different political views get expressed in various parties big and small from national parties to some of the regional outfits that represent regional aspirations. Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party are two of the national parties with some representation in almost all parts of India. Then there are some regional parties which represent regional aspirations. It is the conglomeration of all these parties that make India a vibrant democracy.

Congress and its UPA alliance has been in power for the past seven years. Congress has been in power ever since independence with an intermittent opposition rule. To the credit of Congress of Jawaharlal Nehru and Shastri and Indira Gandhi, they never tried to muzzle opposition. It was not an onslaught on the opposition. They were confident enough of their own political niche and knew that they had enough to offer to the common Indian such that the people of India would repose their faith in Congress and its policies. It is said that Indira Gandhi did become suspicious of the opposition and the 1975 emergency was her way of muzzling the opposition. But I believe it had less to do with her own inability to strike a chord with the people and more to do with a situation that made the country susceptible to instability. Emergency saw the fall of the Congress government and Janata Party coming to power.  It is another matter that the conglomeration of anti-Congress forces was such a disaster that the government could not complete its term and Congress was swept back to power.

There are voices that talk of an ‘emergency like situation’ in the India of today. It is intriguing why a government that has not made any disastrous mistakes would be so insecure to try and force itself on issues and personalities. Again crass Bushism is the only attitude that can describe what is going on in politics of the nation today.  It could well be that Congress Party is fed up of forming governments with allies and having to share power. Maybe they would love to have a majority on their own and that is why they are so keen on ensuring power any which way. It’s the pointed harassment and targeting opposition and their governments that makes’ one uncomfortable. It is true that Congress has a history of using means fair and foul to bludgeon opposition but what is happening today is more concerted and deliberate with an absolute contempt and intolerance for any opposition. I am not talking about just political parties but also individuals and organizations beyond politics. The one who is against the establishment can expect to be targeted. This is a dangerous development.

Must I cite examples? There are a host of examples in recent times and the worrying development is that such blatant targeting is getting more and more crass and vicious. It’s the absolute intolerance of any variance in political discourse that makes me cringe. Opposition may not be a friend but in a thriving democracy like ours to label it as a foe or an enemy is definitely not a healthy trend. Oppose opposition governments by all means but there is a way of going about it. Hounding opposition governments in states is definitely not the way.

The biggest Achilles heel for the Congress has always been the Gujarat government of Narendra Modi. Ever since the Gujarat riots of 2002 there has been a blitzkrieg in the media against the Modi government. Institutions and NGO’s have been floated purportedly with the single aim of targeting the BJP government there, They have seen the performance of the Modi government and know that defeating the man in polls is a tall order, so they are taking recourse to any means fair and foul to run down the Modi government. What Congress does not understand is that the more they try to hound the CM and his ministers the stronger they become politically. The TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor comes into play and it becomes increasingly difficult to dislodge the man. The latest appointment of the Lokayukta by the Governor is the culmination of a series of improprieties by various Congress stooges in an attempt to dislodge the BJP government in Gandhinagar.

There is another very childish maneuver that the Congress is adopting in states where opposition is in power. The Governor will sit on files that should have been routine matters only to slow down the development process. And then go to town screaming that the government is not doing enough. The Nitish Kumar led Bihar government is so tired of this silly nonsense that they have suggested that it should be mandatory for the Governor to sign files and keep the administrative wheels of the state moving. And then there was this instance of New Delhi granting a thousand crores to Bihar and once the elections were over and the JD(U)-BJP alliance swept the polls a fax reached Patna asking the state to return the money pronto! It was such a childish thing to do that it is more of an amusing aside than any serious politics.

Similarly, in Karnataka the Congress concluded that were BS Yeddyurappa to remain as the chief minster their chances of coming back to power were zilch. A concerted campaign started that has still not abated. The man was called names and frivolous charges of corruption emerged. The media played a proactive role as is their wont. The inexperienced BJP leadership in Delhi succumbed to the media blitzkrieg and the constant attacks on the man from the Congress and the JD(S). BS Yeddyurappa was removed and his protégé Sadanand Gowda made the CM. The BJP top brass was naive enough to try and marginalize their trump card and an ugly confrontation between the regional satrap and the leadership from Delhi saw a protracted battle where BSY managed to get his candidate elected. To be fair to the BJP top brass it could well be that had they insisted on continuing with BSY the Governor may have imposed President’s rule. That would have meant giving power on a platter to the Congress. But the lack of respect shown to the BJP war horse, BSY did leave a bad taste in the mouth. Funnily it suited Congress to throw a noose around HD Kumarswamy who was till yesterday voicing invective’s against BJP government in concert with the Congress. Congress is trying to kill two birds with one stone. HDK is wary of a stint in jail. Congress the only ‘winner’, if one may call it thus.

The BJP then thought that they would be able to corner the Congress government in Delhi. They tried to launch a shrill campaign against Sheila Dixit government who is facing serious charges of corruption. The media played it down and the woman refused to speak. The Congress government shamelessly warded off all charges and ensured that the BJP backed off. Sheila Dixit government stays. The CAG report that indicted Dixit government was put in cold storage.

In UP too there have been massive efforts by the Congress to undermine the BSP government in Lucknow. The Bhatta Parsaul incident where there was firing by the UP Police to quell farmers protesting saw Rahul Gandhi undertake a padyatra. Frivolous charges of atrocities committed by the police were made by Digvijay Singh and Rahul Gandhi. Charges of rape by the police were made that were found to be untrue. The farmers are very upset with these insinuations as their close knit communities gets a bad name.  While Rahul Gandhi always finds time to go and hear the grievances of farmers in UP he seldom has time for other states where Congress governments are in power. In Andhra Pradesh hundreds of young men have committed suicide for Telangana but Rahul Gandhi has no time for them.

The Congress government is particularly vicious against the saffron brigade – the BJP and the RSS. They have a cabal in an advisory council to Sonia Gandhi that is a den of leftist extremists with dubious links. The Fai connection that was unearthed by the FBI saw many Indian ‘intellectuals’ being exposed. But they have not been touched. They are a tool to bludgeon the opposition with and therefore they must not be disturbed. This is a very dangerous development and using those with dubious credentials who are a threat to the state just because they can be used to run down the opposition will boomerang in the long run. Such elements should have been plucked out. That they are as active as ever means that their confidence will grow and they will become a law unto themselves, as they have indeed. Congress has lost all sense of proportion in its pursuit to decimate all opposition any which way.

The murder of Shehla Masood in Bhopal is now being used as a tool to target the BJP government in Madhya Pradesh. It is being said that the CM’s office was threatening Ms Masood. Remarkably in the same breath the same people point out that she was running an NGO that was funded by the saffron right. There is an evident contradiction there and it will be interesting to see how this pans out. The media had also been running a constant barrage of reports of how a senior BJP leader talked to Ms Masood before her murder and how the police was going to question him. Media kept asking her father as to whether he believed the said person was behind the murder. The old man kept on saying that he did not believe so but the question wouldn’t stop.

The way the Congress is trying to rope in BJP in the 2G spectrum scam where Arun Shourie and Jaswant Singh have been made a party to the case and are expected to make statements on their decisions is absolutely hilarious. This came about when Kanimozhi and A Raja made PM party to their decision. The Congress dirty tricks machinery sprung into action and ways and means are being found to distance the PM from the quagmire that is the 2G saga. Sometimes these obviously crude efforts makes one smirk.

In all of this the media has played a very negative role. They have been suckers for anything that the Congress dishes out. The Congress is overtly anti-majority and the media tows the government line. I have a feeling that this anti-Hindu sentiment within Congress runs so strong that anyone speaking for the Hindus within the Congress is summarily sidelined. The grapevine has it and Francious Gautier has also mentioned this in one of his articles that some of the top Congress leaders have converted to Christianity. The names that he mentions are close to the Gandhi family – people like Digvijay Singh, Mani Shankar Aiyer and Ambika Soni have reportedly converted and are practicing Christians now. There must be some very compelling reason for them to take such an extreme step. Again the Bush adage may have been behind this. To prove their allegiance to the ruling elite they forsake their own faith. The amusing part and perhaps the gory reality in this whole sordid saga is that the Gandhi family sees Hindus as the ‘other’ or even a possible ‘enemy’. This does not bode well for the party and for the country. The rules of ‘enemy’ therefore extend to those within the party. Remarkably there are no Hindus in the kitchen cabinet of Sonia Gandhi, Ahmed Patel, the man behind a series of riots in Gujarat, their point man and their Man Friday.

What is true with political parties is true with any voices beyond the political horizon. The way the Anna movement is being crushed is a cruel reminder that any opposition will be decimated. The government should have educated the people about Anna movement but they chose to use devious means to scuttle the upsurge. The way Baba Ramdev and his followers were beaten up and thrashed is still fresh in the memory of the nation.

The government needs to understand that political opponents need to be fought politically. There is a fine line between political activism and anarchy. Using all means fair and foul to crush all opposition can be detrimental to the democratic tradition of this nation. There has to be some semblance of propriety in fighting ones political foes. Politics has to be issue based. Politics has turned personal and that is a worrying development. A shrill electronic media only fuels the fires started by the ruling elite. This is no way to look at ones political adversaries. There has to be some mutual respect for the opposition. The contemptuous arrogance of the ruling elite needs to be toned down! Congress has a lot to offer this nation. They can make inroads in the most difficult of political paths provided they limit their offensive to political discourse. Otherwise they will be like an Express Train that has its brakes failed moving towards an inevitable collision with a concrete wall that is the will of the people of this great nation.